February 13, 2024.

The Three Brotherhood Alliance has declared that the long-awaited dismantling of military dictatorship fervently desired by the entire Myanmar people, will be fulfilled within the Chinese Year of the Dragon.

The Three Brotherhood Alliance’s announcement on entering the auspicious New Year of the Dragon, vowed the aspirations of the people of Myanmar will also be realized.

They further remarked that it has exercised particular restraint to ensure that the sound of gunshots does not disrupt the peace, allowing locals along the China-Myanmar border to celebrate the Chinese New Year without any stress.

However a military researcher cautions that the 3 – Brother ‘s forecast of toppling the Junta this year is impossible, unless it resumes operations in northern Shan State.

“It remains uncertain whether the Three Brotherhood Alliance will resume operations after the Chinese New Year. If the ceasefire in northern Shan State continues and the large-scale fighting in northern Rakhine State remains localized, it’s unrealistic to expect the complete overthrow of the military dictatorship in 2024”, he said.

Due to the intervention of the Chinese government, a ceasefire has been brokered between the Military Council and the Three Brotherhood Alliance in northern Shan State, while in Rakhine State, the Arakan Army (AA) is continuously seizing control of Junta bases and outposts.

The Prime Minister of the National Unity Government, Mahn Win Khaing Than also declared 2024 as a crucial milestone for the overthrow of the military dictatorship, affirming NUG’s readiness to collaborate with all allied resistance forces.

However, as NUG is presently incapable of fully arming the People’s Defense Force (PDF), it faces ongoing logistical challenges on the battlefield, indicating that significant obstacles may impede the overthrow of the military dictatorship in 2024.

U Than Soe Naing, a military and political analyst, expressed optimism by suggesting that due to the shared common goal between NUG and the Three Brotherhood Alliance, the objective of overthrowing the military dictatorship could advance within a year.

“NUG has designated 2024 as the ultimate deadline for dismantling the military dictatorship, aligning closely with the Three Brotherhood Alliance’s stance. So, we should believe that this objective will gradually reach a level that can be achieved within a year”, he noted.

Since last year, many resistance forces have rallied under the battle cry ‘Road to Naypyidaw’, with ongoing clashes now intensifying in Bago Region and Karenni State, both strategically adjacent to Naypyidaw, the stronghold of the coup regime.

On February 7th, clashes intensified between the Junta troops and joint resistance forces in Zayatkyi village, situated in Htantabin Township, Bago Region. The following day, on February 8th, local resistance fighters successfully captured the Junta’s 12-Mile hill-based camp in Bawlakhe Township, Karenni State.

The Karen KNLA/KNU and the Kachin KIA the two oldest EAO resistance armies, have also made steady gains with the KIA leading the field in the number of Junta aircraft shot down.

Amidst the increasingly unified and coordinated resistance battles nationwide, the Military Council has lost control of over 30 towns and several hundred outposts of varying sizes over the span of three years.

However the downfall of the coup regime cannot be predicted with any certainty as there are so many unpredictable factors such which encompass – political, economic and diplomatic factors including China’s declining confidence in the longevity of the regime, while still wary of the proclaimed NUG-led revolution.

News-Than Lwin Times

Photo – TNLA

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