Interview with political analyst Dr Sai Kyi Zin Soe
Nineteen political parties have submitted their applications to the junta-controlled Union Election Commission for the establishment and registration of party. Among them, five parties will carry out election campaigns across the country, while 14 parties will try for the seats only in their respective regions and states.
In this interview, political analyst Dr Sai Kyi Zin Soe is asked about his view on these applications, whether such application would help the junta to break its impasse and the possible scenarios of political situations in Myanmar.
TLT: What is your view on applications for political party registration to the junta? Could these party stand as strong political groups?
Dr Sai Kyi Zin Soe: As per the recent rules of regulations of junta regime, these political parties could not stand as strong political groups. There are only a few numbers of powerful political parties. The United Democratic Party (widely known as the Rose Party) has changed itself into a new organization , while the National League for Democracy’ party has seen splits and disputes among his core members. It is very difficult to form a major party. The People’s Party, led by prominent political prisoner U Ko Ko Gyi, has offered the merger of like-minded parties to contest the elections. Some parties will emerge to represent their respective regions and states. Another scenario is to boycott the planned elections. The rules of UEC will surely favour the USDP instead of support for the emergence of democratically elected government in the multi-party elections. It is undeniable and very visible. Under these circumstances, they would do whatever lay in their power to ensure victory in the upcoming elections as in 2020. They would help their sponsored Union Solidarity and Development Party secure majority of votes.
TLT: Will these applications help the military to break political impasse? What will be the future political scenarios?
Dr Sai Kyi Zin Soe: It is like a circle: Which came first, the chicken or the egg? In looking back 2008 State Constitution, it was not totally impossible to amend it between 2010 and 2020 due to strict provisions. There was also an assumption for the benefit people as per the constitution. So, the 2008 Constitution has been useless. And the its opponents prefer adopting a new charter. Some consider about emergence of ‘federal constitution’ , while the military strongly believes that the country will turn into a fail state without this constitution. So, they carried out violent crackdown on their opponents with the charges of treason. If it is too rigid to amend the 2008, both sides could not end confrontation.
The revolutionists will label the political party applicants as the traitors in the struggle for emergence of new state. For example, the People’s Party is preparing for upcoming elections under 2008 Constitution. U Ko Ko Gyi has already said in his media interview that the 2008 Constitution is not a solution for ongoing political crisis, but it will become a mean to find its solution.
Even Daw Aung San Suu Kyi failed to amend the 2008 Constitution after she took an oath to protect and safeguard this constitution to become a lawmaker in the parliament. Some politicians are now trying to follow this failed trend. It is realized that the 2008 Constitution does not meet the public expectation. It cannot guarantee their expectation. It must be amend to meet the expectation of diverse ethnics.
So, the upcoming election is not a solution for Myanmar’s deadlock. Instead, confrontation and conflicts will occur in both sides.
TLT: The junta recently said that the nationwide census will be taken next year. So, will the elections happen this year?
Dr Sai Kyi Zin Soe: The junta extended the state of emergency for six months. It reflects that they could hold the elections. The UEC is working to implement electoral rules. They are expected to hold the elections for the emergence of a government through elections. Then, their government will continue implementation in line with their roadmap. Referring to the word of ‘abnormal situations’, they would suspend the election because they assumed that they are responsible for stability of the country. They have assigned themselves duties to safeguard and not to dissolve 2008 Constitution. Aand that they will surely hold elections, followed by the new government’s implementation of public services and reform processes. Will they bear these responsibilities for these works? Will they transfer power to the newly elected government? The answer will depend on the ongoing situations. Whether the elections will be held or not and the results from political exposure and contacts will turn out.
