Military council expects GDP to grow despite severe economic downturn

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Nay Pyi Taw, April (8)

The military council issued the 2023–2024 National Planning Law on April 7 with the objective of raising the average production value and services (Per Capita GDP) to more than 2.4 million Kyats per annum, despite the fact that the nation’s economy is in serious decline.

The military council said that they enacted this law under Article 419 of the Constitution with the aim of developing the people’s socio-economic life for the country’s prosperity and food security, and to achieve long-term inclusive development centered on the people.

The 2023–2024 fiscal year National Planning Law will come into effect on April 1 this year, and the fiscal year is set to run from early April to the end of March next year.

The plan aims to increase the gross domestic product and service value of GDP by a regular 4.1 percent, and by sector, from a minimum of 2.1 percent to a maximum of 17 percent.

In the implementation of the projects, the goal is to export US $ 16,500 million worth of exports and to import US $ 16,000 million worth of imports.

According to Dr. Sai Kyi Zin Soe, a political analyst, due to the ongoing turmoil, Myanmar’s products will only be purchased from neighboring countries, and the products cannot always be produced, making the goals impossible. He added, “Myanmar has been sanctioned by many countries. Therefore, demand for domestic products is only from neighboring China, Thailand, and India. Those countries will only buy mineral resources”.

Also, Dr. Sai Kyi Zin Soe emphasized that it is challenging to promote local products by sector and difficult to run a business and raise income owing to the lack of adequate electrical supply.

More than two years after Myanmar’s military coup, power cuts have worsened, foreign investment has decreased, and foreign companies are gradually leaving the country.

However, the military council expects the economy to grow by 4 percent in Sagaing, where the fighting is intense, 2.5 percent in Magway, 4.2 percent in Chin State, 4.5 percent in Kayah State, and 3.6 percent in Karen State, according to the planning law.

According to a World Bank’s report released in January, more than two years after the military coup, Myanmar’s politics and economy are struggling with conflicts and are facing the worst situation.

The World Bank reported that the GDP forecast of 3 percent growth in the year ending September 2023 implies that per capita GDP will still be around 13 percent lower than in 2019.

News-Than Lwin Times

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